ANTHONY KIM WON 50/1 - BY 5 SHOTS !!

"1. Played here only once and that was last year when he finished T5TH - he was the 3RD best at 8 under over the last three rounds [69-69-70] and he had some good stats as he was 3RD best for fewest bogeys + T3RD for GIR.
2. He is a very good scrambler - being ranked 2ND and 7TH for scrambling in his last two starts.
3. He has finished 2Nd in the Verizon Heritage and 19TH in the Byron Nelson in his last two starts so he’s clearly in good form - but more than that he’s in better form coming to the Wachovia this year as he finished 51ST last year in the Byron Nelson compared to 19TH last week in that tournament.
4. Kim’s weakness is his putting from 15-20 and from 20-25 feet as he’s not in the top 140 for either category. However he’s 7TH for putts from 5 to 10 feet!

IN SUM - This guy is going to be a real star and I think he’ll probably win this year - he may even get a US Ryder Cup place. This week at 50/1 he looks a sound EW wager."

Please note - Kim is now only 11/10 to get that Ryder Cup place.

WHAT A WEEKEND

Winning bets in 6 of the 7 football matches covered

MON: BEST BET: NEWCASTLE V CHELSEA - HT DRAW/FT CHELSEA WON 7/2

"IN SUM - I expect Chelsea to suffer from Mental Let Down [MLD] today esp in the first half and against a fired up Newcastle I can see this being decided in the second period. So rather than back Chelsea at odds on to win, the HT/FT wager may well turn out to be the best bet in this game."

SUN: BEST BET: BLACKPOOL V WATFORD - DRAW WON 2/1

"1. Blackpool at home are very difficult to beat - they have lost only 4 all season - however they have more home draws than anyone else - 10 from 22 (45% = odds of 6/5).
2. Blackpool at home have drawn 5 of their last 9 games (55% = odds of 4/5).
3. Blackpool will have secured their place in the Championship if they draw this game.
4. Watford need to draw this to ensure that they are in the play-offs.
5. Watford have not been winning recently but they have been drawing, esp. in away games - they have drawn 5 of their last 9 away games (55% = odds of 4/5) - this is the same record as Blackpool's home draw record in their last 9 home matches.

IN SUM - The stats point to a draw and that is a result that will suit both sides! If this game is level with say 20 minutes to go they will both be able to play 'total no risk' football."

TV - Arsenal to beat Everton - WON 8/11
TV - Liverpool v Man City - Babel to score 11/4 - Missed a 5 yard sitter !!

SAT - Non TV - Fulham to beat Birmingham - WON 5/4
TV - Man Utd v West Ham - HT Utd/FT Utd - WON 4/7
TV - Bolton to beat Sunderland - WON 4/6

 

To Monday 28th April 2008

LAST WEEK

Wed - Barcelona v Man Utd - Draw Won 11/5
Thurs - Bayern Munich v Zenit St. Petersberg - Draw Won 10/3, C/S 1-1 Won 7/1
Fri (R. League) - Warrington v St Helens - H/cap Bet (St.H - 4pts) Won 10/11. Saints by 6-10 pts Won 11/2.
Sat - Sunday's best bet was given early - CELTIC to beat Rangers Won 6/5.

 

To Monday 21st April 2008

BEST FOR WEEKEND FOOTBALL

Sat April 19th - Blackburn v Man Utd

DRAW WON 3/1 - C/S 1-1 DRAW WON 7/1

"Rover have drawn at home already against two of the other three top teams, in 2008 they have drawn at home in 3 of their 7 Premier League games (all 1-1) and with United likely to have one eye on Wednesdays Champions League game, this could well be a draw." 

Sunday April 20th - Aston Villa v Birmingham

ASTON VILLA WON 5/6

"I know it's a 'no prisoners' local derby, yet all the analysis points to Villa winning this eg. Birmingham away to the sides positioned 6th - 9th in the Premier League ie, sides in a similar position to Villa - Birmingham have lost, 2-4 at Portsmouth, 0-1 at Man City and 1-2 at Blackburn."

Newcastle v Sunderland

NEWCASTLE WON 17/20

"Home advantage may well be the deciding factor."

GOLF - THE BEST BETS FOR THE BIGGEST 

TOURNAMENTS

This season there have been two World Golf Championship tournaments and one Major.

MEMBERS HAVE MADE REALLY BIG PROFITS FROM THEM

WGC MATCHPLAY - HENRK STENSON (ew) 3rd 33/1

WGC CA CHAMPIONSHIP - GEOFF OGILVY (ew) WON 55/1
                                               GEOFF OGILVY (ew) w/o Woods (ew) w/o Woods WON 25/1

US MASTERS - ROUND 1 LEADER - JUSTIN ROSE WON (DH) 33/1

WHAT A RECORD

3rd 33/1 -> W55/1, W25/1 -> W(dh)33/1

GOLF

LAST BIG GOLF TOURNAMENT - WGC/CA CHAMPIONSHIP

On Monday's Early Birdie Line - Only One Player Given To Beat Tiger !!

             GEOFF OGILVY WON 55/1
             GEOFF OGILVY WON 25/1 (W/O Woods)

This was Keith's analysis for tipping Geoff Ogilvy, who was his only EW bet in the tournament.

1. Ogilvy has found his form in the last couple of weeks - he’s finished 10TH in the PODS Championship and 14TH yesterday in the Arnold Palmer at Bay Hill after a superb 66 in R4.
2. He was T4TH for GIR last week – a key stat as accurate approach play is the key at Doral.
3. Last week his putting improved round by round – he took 33-31-28-27 putts in the four rounds.
4. Last year here Ogilvy was T3RD - he was the ONLY player in the field then to go under par on both the par 3s and the par 4s yet he managed only par on the sixteen par 5s. Put another way he was SIX shots better than Tiger on the par 3s + 4s yet Tiger was TEN shots better than Geoff on the par 5s!!

So can Geoff improve on the par 5s this week compared to last year? YES - after all yesterday in his final round at Bay Hill he had a birdie and an eagle on the two par 5s.

5. Last year at Bay Hill before playing at Doral he was 14TH and this year he’s also finished 14TH so there’s every chance that Geoff might play as well as last year especially if the winds blow.

IN SUM - Geoff is now in the form he was in last year when he got to Doral and this three time US winner who is a big tournament specialist with US Open and a WGC Matchplay to his credit looks just the sort of player who could well play really well here again this year. Worth a bet in both the outright and w/o Woods markets. 50/1 or more looks a crackin EW price in the outright market.

Given on Monday when 55/1 was on offer, Ogilvy started at 40/1 as Keith's members took the plunge.

WHAT A WEEKEND TO END MARCH - 6 OUTRIGHT BETS, 6 WINNERS !!

FRI - On Thursday evening, members were given LEEDS at 10/11 to win at St Helens. Backed into 8/11 the bet WON on Friday night.

SAT - Best Bet won when SUNDERLAND beat West Ham at 11/8.

"At home to non top 5 sides, Snderland have a superb record Pl10, W7 - that's a 70% success rate. They have the greater motivation and at 11/8 it's the best bet today."

*THAT BEST BET MADE THE SATURDAY RECORD IN MARCH - 5 BEST BETS, 5 WINNERS at 11/8, 5/4, 11/10, 11/10 and 11/8.

PLUS - WOLVES WON 12/5 ........ "an exceptionally big price for such an in form away side as Wolves"

SOUTHEND WON 10/11.

SUNDAY - BEST BET MK DONS WON EVENS and LIVERPOOL WON 4/5.

RUGBY LEAGUE IN MARCH

6 HANDICAP BETS - FIVE WON - 83% STRIKE RATE
10/11, EVENS, 4/5, 10/11 and 10/11

WHAT A WEEKEND TO END THE MONTH - 6 OUTRIGHT BETS, 6 WINNERS !!

FRI - On Thursday evening, members were given LEEDS at 10/11 to win at St Helens. Backed into 8/11 the bet WON on Friday night.

SAT - Best Bet won when SUNDERLAND beat West Ham at 11/8.

"At home to non top 5 sides, Snderland have a superb record Pl10, W7 - that's a 70% success rate. They have the greater motivation and at 11/8 it's the best bet today."

*THAT BEST BET MADE THE SATURDAY RECORD IN MARCH - 5 BEST BETS, 5 WINNERS at 11/8, 5/4, 11/10, 11/10 and 11/8.

PLUS - WOLVES WON 12/5 ........ "an exceptionally big price for such an in form away side as Wolves"

SOUTHEND WON 10/11.

SUNDAY - BEST BET MK DONS WON EVENS and LIVERPOOL WON 4/5.

RUGBY LEAGUE IN MARCH

6 HANDICAP BETS - FIVE WON - 83% STRIKE RATE
10/11, EVENS, 4/5, 10/11 and 10/11

GOLF

On Monday's Early Birdie Line - Only One Player Given To Beat Tiger !!

             GEOFF OGILVY WON 55/1
             GEOFF OGILVY WON 25/1 (W/O Woods)

This was Keith's analysis for tipping Geoff Ogilvy, who was his only EW bet in the tournament.

1. Ogilvy has found his form in the last couple of weeks - he’s finished 10TH in the PODS Championship and 14TH yesterday in the Arnold Palmer at Bay Hill after a superb 66 in R4.
2. He was T4TH for GIR last week – a key stat as accurate approach play is the key at Doral.
3. Last week his putting improved round by round – he took 33-31-28-27 putts in the four rounds.
4. Last year here Ogilvy was T3RD - he was the ONLY player in the field then to go under par on both the par 3s and the par 4s yet he managed only par on the sixteen par 5s. Put another way he was SIX shots better than Tiger on the par 3s + 4s yet Tiger was TEN shots better than Geoff on the par 5s!!

So can Geoff improve on the par 5s this week compared to last year? YES - after all yesterday in his final round at Bay Hill he had a birdie and an eagle on the two par 5s.

5. Last year at Bay Hill before playing at Doral he was 14TH and this year he’s also finished 14TH so there’s every chance that Geoff might play as well as last year especially if the winds blow.

IN SUM - Geoff is now in the form he was in last year when he got to Doral and this three time US winner who is a big tournament specialist with US Open and a WGC Matchplay to his credit looks just the sort of player who could well play really well here again this year. Worth a bet in both the outright and w/o Woods markets. 50/1 or more looks a crackin EW price in the outright market.

Given on Monday when 55/1 was on offer, Ogilvy started at 40/1 as Keith's members took the plunge.

FOOTBALL

*ManUtd to beat Bolton 2-0 - W11/2
*Reading to beat Birmingham - W11/10
Everton v West Ham Draw - W13/5, C/S 1-1 - W6/1

RUGBY LEAGUE

Hull KR (off zero) to beat Hull - W4/5
*Leeds (-8) at Hull - W10/11 - 4th win in 5 handicap bets in March.

* - Denotes the days best bet.

MARCH RESULTS

More Football Success This Week

*Ipswich beat Barnsley - W7/4
*Everton beat Fiorentina - W1/1
Berbatov to score anytime - W23/10
Sporting Lisbon to beat Bolton W4/6

and the big result from the JJB as Wigan beating Bolton 1-0 - W7/1

American Golf

We Continue to Hit the Bar in March
Following ew bets at T3rd 40/1, 2nd 25/1 and 3rd 33/1 in the last weeks of February
March has started with successful ew bets.

March 9th - PODS Championship - No 1 Pick STEWART CINK T2nd ew 30/1
March 2nd - Honda Classic - No 1 pick - Luke Donald 2nd ew 25/1
Football
The February Success Story Continued in the First 9 Days of March

Wallsall W11/8*, Man City v Wigan Draw W5/2, Blackburn W9/5.
Liverpool W5/6*, Everton W10/11, Man Utd W2/5.
Bolton v Sporting Lisbon Draw W23/10 and C/S 1-1 W11/2.
Hereford W5/4*
Wigan (Asian Handicap) v Arsenal W11/10*

So Again Level Stakes Profit on all March Outright and all Other Football Bets
Rugby League - Sole March Bet So Far
Castleford + 20pts v Leeds - W10/11*

WHAT A RECORD - ALL FOOTBALL BETS

FROM WED 13th FEBRUARY - SUN 2nd MARCH INCLUSIVE

24 Outright Bets - 17 WON (70.8%) - Level Stake Profit = 20.59pts (85% Return)

16 Other Bets - 5 WON at 11/1, 7/1, 6/1, 18/5 + 7/5 - Level Stake Profit = 18.2pts

OVERALL
40 Bets - 22 WON - L.S.P = 38.79pts, 97% return

AMERICAN GOLF

HONDA CLASSIC
No.1 pick Luke Donald (EW) 2nd 25/1

MAYAKOBA CLASSIC
Matt Kuchar (EW) T3rd 40/1 adv
Steve Marino (EW) 2nd 25/1

WGC MATCHPLAY
Henrik Stenson (EW) 3rd 33/1
Plus our sole 2 ball bet W4/6      

STOP PRESS - WED 13TH FEB - 100% LINE 
 

FIVE BETS - FIVE WINS - LSP 20.62 PTS

Below is a reproduction of the advice as it appeared on the website on that day.

SCOTTISH FA CUP REPLAY - TV - SKY - 7.45PM - DUNDEE UTD v ST MIRREN

ST MIRREN to win - 9/2 VC, TO cf 10/3 WH.

C/S - ST MIRREN 1-0 - 11/1 BF cf 8/1 BD, SJ.

BEST BET - ASIAN HANDICAP - ST MIRREN + 0.75 - 4/5 VC, LA - This bet wins if Saints win or draw and you only lose half your stake if Saints lose by one goal.

Very interesting as the more I researched this game the more I could see a ‘shock’ result.
Let’s be clear - this season Dundee Utd have played St Mirren three times - they won 2-0 at home and 3-0 away in the SPL and drew 0-0 in the first game at St Mirren.
So superficially with Utd 3RD in the SPL well above St Mirren this looks a home banker - however let’s focus on TWO KEY POINTS.

1. The Saints were the better side in the first leg but missed chances and found the Dundee Utd keeper in top form.
2. The Saints recent form ‘on the road’ really is good - their last six have been Hibs W1-0, Motherwell D1-1, Inverness Cally L0-1, Celtic D1-1 AND Hearts W1-0 before losing 4-0 at Rangers. However the form in the first five of those is good - PL5 W2 D2 L1 - and the only defeat was by one goal. That sequence makes the Asian Handicap bet look solid.

IN SUM - St Mirren look overpriced at 9/2 here. If you want a safer pro Saints bet then the Asian Handicap is the best route. If Saints are to win then 1-0 seems the likely score as it was the score by which they won those games at Hibs and Hearts.


UEFA CUP - 7PM - CH 5 TV - SK BRANN v EVERTON

EVERTON to win - 8/11.

HT DRAW/FT EVERTON - 18/5 EX cf 3/1 WH. This bet has won in all Everton’s three away Carling Cup matches, in one of their Away uefa Cup group games [at Nurenberg] and Everton haven’t scored a 1ST half goal in their last 8 premiership games - It looks the best value bet in this game.

1. Everton are taking the UEFA Cup really seriously esp. as they are now out of the FA Cup.
2. SK will find this tough as they are ‘rusty’ as their domestic league is closed at present.
3. SK are not a particularly good side as they only won one of their four group games.
4. Everton won all their group games and won ‘on the road’ at AZ Alkmaar [3-2] and Nuremberg [2-0] - who were both probably stronger opponents than Brann.

IN SUM - An in form Everton, even without their key playmaker Arteta, should win this although they are understandably short at 8/11. Everton will play it cautious ‘early doors’ and it may well be that they win this in the second half at 18/5."

FEBRUARY

Weekend

Arsenal win at Man City                          W5/6
Newcastle v Middlesbrough - Draw -      W12/5  -  C/S 1-1 - W6/1

Superbowl - Giants + 12.5 pts             W10/11

Only Two International Bets
England to beat Switzerland                   W1/2
Bulgaria to beat Nr. Ireland                      W6/4

Rugby League. 1st TV game - One Bet
Warrington (-10 pts) v Hull                    W10/11

Weekend

Preston to beat Coventry                        W6/5
Villa to beat Newcastle                            W10/11
Leicester v Plymouth, under 2.5 goals   W7/10