Monday 4th January 2009
Liverpool's poor season no surprise to Elliott's Premier Sports Betting members
The poor record of Liverpool this season has surprised many including TV 'experts' Alan Hansen and Jamie Redknapp who predicted that Liverpool would win the Premier League title.
However, as early as 26th August 2009, Keith's members were advised the following:
Liverpool NOT to finish in the Top 4 at odds of 11/4
Here's the incisive analysis behind the ante post bet:
BACKGROUND: After a poor pre-season with three defeats Liverpool were poor at Spurs and very poor at home to Villa who had won only 2 of their previous 14 Premier league games.
There are seven pointers behind this bet:
- GERRARD and TORRES: Gerrard is in poor form as his 'private life' adversely affects his form - the court case is over but a civil action against him started last week. Benitez' style should be to publicly support and comfort him, but he actually did the opposite on Monday evening as he blamed 'senior players'. Benitez poor man-management skills lost Alonso, now they upset his captain. Torres, meanwhile, has had a minimal rest period in the summer due to the Confederations Cup and has been well marked so far as he lacks his end of season sharpness.
- SET PLAYS: Liverpool have conceded headed goals from set plays in their two defeats this season - a habit that cost them last season too e.g. against Everton home and away.
- LOSS OF ALONSO: With in Lucas in midfield alongside Mascherano, Benitez has two holding midfielders. The forward passing is then not quick and defences have time to set themselves. Aquilani will not be fit for six weeks or more, will then need time to fit in - by then it may well be too late.
- LACK OF WIDTH: LW Riera is the only natural wide player as Babel, Benayoun and Kuyt all drift in. This enables teams to 'park the bus' at Anfield, blocking Liverpool through the central area and if Liverpool don't score early then they struggle.
- DEPTH OF SQUAD: Having allowed Hyppia to leave, there are only three experienced CB's on the books, the bench looks very inexperienced and up front Voronin (notice him avoid a tackle on Monday evening) and 'he needs one more chance' Babel are the options on the bench.
- NO MORE MONEY: Benitez is already moaning about the owners and expect a lot more of that from now on.
- MANCHESTER CITY and SPURS, and just possibly ASTON VILLA.
IN SUM: There are three clubs, especially City and Spurs, who this season look to have squads that have depth, good attacking options and top class managers. Both have cash, especially City, and it's very likely that either one or both will finish ahead of Liverpool season. So with the 'Big Three' looking strong I can see Liverpool NOT finishing in the Top Four - At 11/4, this looks a very sound bet.
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