Monday 26th October 2009
Nine-in-a-row! More superb winning football bets
Keith Elliott's daily best bets are in terrific winning form with the last
NINE all winning - read the insight and analysis behind these winners below:
Wed 14th Oct: Uruguay v Argentina HT Draw WON 23/20
"1. In their 8 home WCQ games, Uruguay have kept 7 first half clean sheets, with Brazil the only team to score a first half goal in Uruguay.
2. Uruguay will not want to concede and so will play it cagey early on, especially if Ecuador are not winning in Chile, and that approach makes a HT draw more likely.
3. Argentina with their 'joke' manager Maradonna had a really tough home WCQ game at the weekend and in a rain storm only won it in the 95th minute 2-1 against Peru - they know a draw will see them qualify for the WC, so they will be taking a no risk approach especially in the first half.
4. Argentina in their away WCQ games have been poor with defeats in Columbia, Chile, Bolivia, Ecuador and Paraguay, however they did draw 0-0 in Brazil and there have been 0-0 HT draws in Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru."
No best bets on Oct 15th or 16th
Sat 17th Oct: Stoke City to beat West Ham WON 23/20
 "1. Stoke are a very strong home side - since their promotion they have played 20 home games against sides outside of last season's top Five and their record is P20 W11 [55%].
2. After the last international break Stoke played well at home to Chelsea losing 2-1 in the 94th minute, while West Ham were losing 1-0 at Wigan.
3. West Ham won here last season but they are now a poorer side than they were then and crucially they will be without their influential MF ball winner Scott Parker.
4. West Ham will aim for a 0-0 and hope to nick something on the break but they lost 1-0 at Wigan and when they drew 0-0 at Blackburn the home side squandered several chances."
Sun 18th Oct: Blackburn to beat Burnley WON 4/5
(given 24 hours earlier)
"1. Since April at home Rovers have P8 W5 D2 and they have won their last two at home beating Wolves 3-1 and Villa 2-1.
2. They are very strong at set plays and crucially they have an 'unsung hero' in David Dunn who is a classy player playing 'in the hole' and he can be the key to a home win. He has already scored 4 this season including three in the last 4 games.
3. Burnley have been poor on the road this season - in the CC they drew at Hartlepool [90 mins] and lost at Barnsley; in the Prmeier League they have lost 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0 - admittedly all at tough clubs (Stoke, Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs) - so they are both goalless and pointless in away PL games!"
Mon 19th Oct: Fulham to beat Hull WON 7/10
(given 24 hours earlier)
 "1. Hull stayed in the Premier League last season because they beat Fulham Home and Away - they beat Fulham at home on the season's opening day and they 'stole' a win here in March with a last minute winner in virtually their only attack of the game. However, they remain a poor side particularly on the road and especially after selling key defender CB Turner.
2. Since that win at Craven Cottage, Hull have played 9 away games in the Premier League - L7 D2 (both 1-1).
3. Left MF Hunt is having a good season, ex-Celtic CF Vennegoor of Hessselink adds height in attack and Jimmy Bullard will probably be on the bench. When he's fully match fit he will be a vital extra player. However, expect Hull to defend deep and try to nick a set piece goal.
4. Fulham beat Arsenal, Spurs, Villa and Man utd at home last season and this season they have met only last season's Top Five clubs losing to Arsenal and Chelsea but beating Everton 2-1. They are surely a class above Hull."
Tue 20th Oct: Blackpool to beat Sheff Utd WON 6/4
"1. Blackpool are flying at present in home games, having won all their last FIVE. They beat Premier League Wigan 4-1 in the CC, and since then in league games they have won 3-0 against Coventry, 2-1 Newcastle, 2-0 Peterboro and 2-0 Plymouth last Saturday.
2. Tonight they will be unchanged and they have a well balanced side with Bouazza on the left in top form.
3. Sheff Utd have real problems - they have a really long injury list, their CB Kilgallon 'has had his head turned' by his agent according to manager Kevin Blackwell who says its affecting his form, and United have now lost their last three away league games 2-3, 1-2 and 1-3 so they are conceding goals."
Wed 21st Oct: CSKA Moscow v Man Utd HT Draw WON 6/5
 "1. United will aim at keeping things very tight in the first half as they get used to this surface.
2. This bet has won in 6 of United's last 10 Champions League away games in Mainland Europe (all of which were 0-0 at HT).
3. Both United's Home and Away Champions League games this season have been HT draws, both 0-0."
Thurs 22nd Oct: Benfica to beat Everton WON 19/20
"1. Benfica are a strong home side who have beaten Bate 2-0 in the EL, and scored 14 in three [W2 D1] home domestic league games.
2. Everton are in a strong position in this group so a little complacency may creep in and they have been well below their best in recent games.
3. Indeed they have looked vulnerable at CB now that last season's successful pairing of Lescott and Jagielka are no longer together."
Fri 23rd Oct: Watford V Sheff Wed - Over 2.5 goals - WON 37/40 (92.5%)
"1. The 'Overs' bet has won in 3 of Wednesday's last 4 away league games, and in 4 of Watford's last 5 home league games.
2. Both sides look better going forward rather than defending - Watford have four fit strikers in Nathan Ellington, who scored on their equaliser on Tuesday, Danny Graham [6 CH goals], the left sided Man Utd loanee Tom Cleverley [5 CH goals], and a fit again Heider Helguson on the bench.
3. Wednesday also have good attacking options with the pace of Jermaine Johnson, and twin strikers Luke Varney and Leon Clarke."
Sat 24th Oct: Southampton to beat MK Dons WON 7/5
"1. Soton are in really top class form. Starting at minus 10 points, once they got that 'deficit' cleared they have won three in a row, 4-1 at home to Gillingham, and 3-1 at both Southend and Oldham. Now that's top form - and they have a confident well balanced squad with a rejuvenated David Connolly now at his best, and £1m striker Rickie Lambert now slimmer and properly fit, a proven goalscorer at this level. Young Lallana too is scoring goals and attracting the scouts although he is doubtful today.
2. MK Dons were our pre season ante post EW bet for this Division and despite a lot of injury problems they have got to 3RD place. They have a useful left winger in Jason Puncheon and a hot striker in Jermaine Easter.
IN SUM - Clearly this is a big test for Southampton but at home, in top class form under a good manager in Alan Pardew, the Saints are flying and they can beat the Dons today at a nice price."
Sun 25th Oct: INSIDE INFORMATION
On Saturday morning, Keith told EPSB members that:
"I was told yesterday, Friday at 12:30pm that Steven Gerrard will NOT play although Torres is a 'maybe' and Johnson a 'probable'."
Accurate inside information, yes, but it didn't lead to a winning bet as Man Utd
lost 2-0.
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